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2025, Another Year of Volatility

The year is now almost over. With some few days of trading, we can conclude that 2025 has been another volatile year and difficult to navigate.

• In March, after Liberation Day, the S&P declined by more than 20%.

• By the end of the year, the S&P delivered a +45% since minimums.

• Index returns for the year are ~18%

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Disclaimer. Please read full disclaimer at the end of the page before reading the article. This publication is only for information and entertainment purposes. It doesn’t constitute financial advice.

The information provided in this blog is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial, investment, or professional advice. The valuations and analyses presented here are based on publicly available

Please remember that nothing in this post is investment recommendation.

Summary

At the start of the month, WOSG published the results of the first half of 2026. The first half of the year confirmed what we were discussing during the FY 2025 results: the sector is recovering.

Step-by-step the company is regaining profitability and increasing the returns and cash generation.

A very solid semester driven by high growth in the US and stable market in the UK. Share price has recovered to nearly ~£5 per share. However, the share price is still below last year’s closing price of ~£6.

Share price has increased by 50% since reaching minimums of the year and the company is gaining strong momentum. After a long journey through the desert, the investment is returning 16%, implying an IRR of around 8% since my first investment in February 2024 which is not extraordinary, but we are now back in the positive territory.

In my humble opinion, the stock has room to continue growing due to the following factors (this is not a buy recommendation):

• There is growth in both regions and margin recovery.

• Cash flow generation increased by 60% compared to last semester, confirming the solid metrics.

• The US and Switzerland reached an agreement to set tariffs at 15%. No more pressure from tariffs for the next quarters.

• US Dollar has stabilized in the last months.

Going forward, f I was the management I will do two things:

• Reinstate a share buyback of at least £30m (modest impact, but balance sheet is healthy and cash flow generation is going to be strong this year)

• Consider a listing in the US to gain liquidity and attraction from US investors. The US is now the largest revenue contributor, with plenty of room to grow in the future. WOSG needs to trade in this market

WOSG 1H 2026 Results

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I first want to apologize for the lower content shared during the last weeks. It’s been a very busy period at my work in the Investment industry, and hopefully activity will start slowing in the coming weeks.

Portfolio Update

Disclaimer. Please read full disclaimer at the end of the page before reading the article. This publication is only fo…

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Disclaimer. Please read full disclaimer at the end of the page before reading the report. This publication is only for information and entertainment purposes. It doesn’t constitute financial advice.

The information provided in this blog is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial, investment, or professional advice. The valuations and analyses presented here are based on publicly available

Executive Summary

• During the first half of 2025, revenue is up +10% on a constant currency basis; +8% reported.

• By geography, US increased by +20%; the UK by +2%.

• Watches and jewellery are growing at +10% YoY.

• I suspect a majority of the revenue growth came from the impact of Tariffs (i.e., consumers are paying the tariffs).

• EBIT remained flat; margin decreased by -50 bps. This raises the key question: what is the real impact from tariffs?

Overall, results seem good; however, there are many things that need to be explained. I suspect revenue growth mainly came from tariffs (i.e., customers are the ones paying the tariffs), as EBIT remained stable YoY.

The math seems simple:

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Disclaimer. Please read full disclaimer at the end of the page before reading the report. This publication is only for information and entertainment purposes. It doesn’t constitute financial advice.

The information provided in this blog is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial, investment, or professional advice. The v…

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Disclaimer. Please read full disclaimer at the end of the page before reading the report. This publication is only for information and entertainment purposes. It doesn’t constitute financial advice.

The information provided in this blog is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial, investment, or professional advice. The valuations and analyses presented here are based on publicly available

Antin: 1H 2025 Results – Slow but Steady Progress

Antin reported its results for the first half of 2025 this week. In short: not much happened.

While we are still expecting more activity from Antin—particularly from the Flagship Fund—the company has only completed one acquisition under the NextGen strategy this semester.

The weakness of the USD has negatively impacted two planned exits from Fund III, but it could also present an opportunity to deploy capital at a more favorable exchange rate.

Management remains cautious but confirmed that fundraising for the Mid Cap strategy will begin next year, with Flagship fundraising to follow.

Overall, things are progressing slowly, but Antin remains a very solid business. Mid Cap and NextGen strategies appear largely de-risked (capital has been deployed, so now it’s about execution), while Flagship still requires more work before its next cycle.

The next fundraising cycle will begin in about a year. This will likely mark a new step-change for Antin. While this cycle was delayed due to challenging market conditions, the company’s strong balance sheet and consistent dividend (~6% annually) provide investors with some cushion.

Adding carried interest into the picture, future shareholder returns could be meaningfully higher than what we are seeing today.

Documents:

1H 2025 Investor Presentation

1H 2025 Financial Report

I. Assets Under Management (AUM)

Fee-Payin AUM

No material changes during the semester—no exits, no new fundraising. This figure will dip slightly if Fund III is divested, before expanding again in the next fundraising cycle.

Assets Under Management

Stable at €33 billion.

Antin tends to grow in step-changes, every 4–5 years, as each fundraising cycle plays out. The company continues expanding its team and preparing for the next cycle. Zooming out, AUM has grown from €0.2 billion to €33 billion over the past 15 years—an impressive compounding story.

II. Transactions During the Semester

Only one acquisition this semester—a disappointing result given the market opportunity. Management needs to accelerate deployment.

Exits remain key, as they smooth the process of raising new funds.

Exit Pipeline

The company presented their plan, but they have faced delays on prior plans, so I won’t take it as granted:

Flagship Fund

No major updates. This is concerning, as Flagship is Antin’s core product. Of the €10.2 billion committed, only €3.0 billion has been invested. We are still within the investment period, and management is taking a disciplined approach (“better slow and good than fast and bad”).

The timing of these investments will ultimately determine when the next Flagship fund can be launched—Antin’s primary growth driver.

Management had initially expected two exits in 2025, but comments on the call suggest they may slip into 2026.

Flagship III Portfolio includes:

• Solvtrans (freight and logistics)

• elanta (fiber)

• CityFibre — Just raised £2.3bn in new financing to fund the expansion of its nationwide full-fibre broadband network, support mergers and acquisitions to consolidate the alternative network (altnet) sector in the UK, and invest further in digital infrastructure and connecting more premises.

• Firstlight (fiber)

• idex (district energy)

• Kisimul (special education)

Some of these companies are ready for exit, while others like CityFibre — which recently raised £2.3 bn for growth — remain in a growth phase.

Mid Cap

Management expects to announce two investments shortly. If they close, Mid Cap Fund I will be nearly fully invested—positioning Antin to launch fundraising for Mid Cap Fund II in 2026.

If they deliver these two acquisitions, Mid Cap Fund I will be on track to be fully invested soon. This will allow to start fundraising during the next year.

NextGen

The acquisition of Matawan was announced in September. It is a fast-growing smart mobility platform serving public transport networks across Europe and the US.

III. Fundraising Update

Management confirmed that they will raise funds for Mid Cap Fund II, and Flagship Fund V will follow.

By order:

Management confirmed the sequence of upcoming funds:

• Mid Cap Fund II – Fundraising expected to launch in 2H 2026.

• Flagship Fund V – To follow in early 2027.

• NextGen II – Likely after the above two, once current investments mature.

• New Strategy - Will follow if they se enough apetite.

Launch of new strategy

This was announced during the start of the year, however it has not yet materialized, and it sounds like it won’t happen this year.

Company is testing the water to see if there is apetite, as they need to see enough interest to raise significant amount of funds (NextGen raised €1.2 bn).

IV. Portfolio Update

The companies in the portfolio companies delivered solid growth during the last 12 months:

• +10.4% revenue growth,

• +19.1% EBITDA growth (not all organic).

The company has signed multiple add-on transaction at the portfolio companies. Some of the activity includes:

• A new GBP 2.3 billion financing round for CityFibre.

• Acquisition of 500 MW from Acciona Spain by Opdenergy

• Several add-on transactions across the portfolio

An intense semester which is always very positive as this is how private equity firms create value.

V. Fund Updates

Flagship

• Flagship Fund III – Near full maturity; ready for divestment. Expected 2.0x gross multiple.

• Flagship Fund IV – Some assets approaching maturity.

• Flagship Fund V – Significant capital still needs to be deployed. There is still time, but at some point they will be more pressured if they don’t deploy some capital during the next quarters.

While Fund III’s performance is slightly below earlier funds (Flagship I & II delivered >2.5x), it is still attractive at 2.0x. Final returns will depend on successful exits.

Mid Cap

After the seventh investment, the fund is now more than 65% committed. They are in very advanced stages for acquiring two companies, which will make the fund nearly invested.

This strategy seems to be doing well and management is optimistic with raising funds again.

They raised €2.2bn in the first fund, so a second fund could start getting interesting it they reach €2.5-3.0 bn.

Performance stands at 1.4xm which seems higher than what other funds deliver during the first ~15 quarters (see image above with fund performances).

NexGen

Acquired one company this year called Matawan, a leading smart mobility platform serving over 330 transport networks across Europe and North America. The partnership aims to accelerate Matawan’s growth, expand its footprint, and support the transition to more sustainable, integrated public transport systems.

VI. Profitability and P&L

Nothing happened in terms of raising funds, but the company maintained its strong financial performance. Last year was affected by catch-up fees. Excluding catch-up, there is growth in all metrics.

As seen in the P&L, revenue was stable during the semester, while margins compressed as the company keeps investing for growth (i.e., increasing its personnel and associated expenses).

On the balance sheet:

• Cash decreased from €390m to €360m (partly affected by the distribution of dividend and negative impact from working capital). This cash more than covers capital committed to current funds and future dividend distributions.

• No financial liabilities.

Part II. Looking Ahead, Valuation and Expectations

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Disclaimer. Please read full disclaimer at the end of the page before reading the report. This publication is only for information and entertainment purposes. It doesn’t constitute financial advice.

The information provided in this blog is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial, investment, or professiona…

Read more

Disclaimer. Please read full disclaimer at the end of the page before reading the report. This publication is only for information and entertainment purposes. It doesn’t constitute financial advice.

The information provided in this blog is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial, investment, or professional advice. The valuations and analyses presented here are based on publicly available.

Sky Harbour published its results for the first half of 2025. The following day, the stock dropped nearly 4%. But were the results really as weak as the market reaction suggests?

I. Site Acquisitions Are Speeding Up

So far in 2025, the company has acquired two new sites, both located in the Northwest—an area where Sky Harbour previously had no presence. Management also reaffirmed guidance of 1–5 additional site acquisitions by year-end.

Momentum is clearly building. Since December 2024, Sky Harbour has added four sites, bringing its total to 18 campuses. The company expects another ~5 in the near term, which would bring the year-end total to between 19 and 23 sites.

✅This keeps the company on pace to reach 23 sites toward its long-term goal of 50.

King County International Airport — Boeing Field (BFI)

One of the highlights is a new brownfield project or existing facility at King County International Airport, commonly known as Boeing Field, just minutes from downtown Seattle. This site has been on the company’s radar for more than five years, and now marks Sky Harbour’s first project in Seattle, with expectations of continued expansion there.

While this airport currently adds only modest revenue potential—about $3.0 million in stabilized revenue (~$33 per square foot)—management views it as a foothold for further growth.

Fun fact: Boeing Field is where Boeing completes the final delivery preparations for its 737 aircraft.

Hillsboro (HIO)

Another important addition is a new ground lease in Portland, Oregon, at Hillsboro Airport—the primary hub for private and business aviation in the Portland metro area.

The site offers 192,000 rentable square feet (RSF), with potential to generate around $7.0 million in revenue. The planned campus will feature four large community hangars plus a smaller hangar for 1–2 aircraft.

II. Construction Updates

During the first half of 2025, Sky Harbour completed—or is close to completing—several initial airports that previously faced construction challenges:

• Phoenix Deer Valley (DVT)

• Dallas Addison (ADS)

• Denver Centennial (APA)

Delays and cost overruns were mainly due to early-stage design issues, which management considers a one-off learning curve as the company gains experience. Construction costs for these airports exceeded the $300/SF benchmark, but the issues have been resolved.

• These issues happened before developing New York, California or North West of the country, which was part of the plan.

Importantly, the company is now offering pre-leases in some airports, requiring tenants to commit in advance with deposits—something that wouldn’t be possible if construction delays were still a risk.

Construction Status

Currently under construction:

• Miami OPF Phase II

• Finalizing: DVT, APA, and BNA

Miami OPF Phase II Status

“The structural foundations and tilt walls were completed at hangar 15. All materials for the pre-engineered metal buildings have been delivered to the site with continuous coordination between the Alston and Stratus Building Systems (formerly RapidBuilt).”

No critical issues reported.

Phoenix (DVT)

Nashville (BNA)

Some Images of the Recent Openings

New sites look very good. Sky Harbour product and service is ahead of competitors. The new hangars are a clear proof, and the design will get better in each delivery.

DVT

APA

Manufacturing and Construction — Now Vertically Integrated

Over the past few years, Sky Harbour has progressively integrated its manufacturing and construction capabilities. By 2026, the company expects to be fully vertically integrated—providing a clear competitive advantage in speed, cost control, and quality.

Sky Harbour is now one of the largest—if not the largest—hangar developers in the country. Its dedicated construction arm is called Ascen Aviation Services, led by Phil Amos, who was also the company’s first general contractor. According to management, Amos successfully delivered the SGR project on time and under budget, making it the least expensive airport the company has ever built.

The company is 100% dedicated to Sky Harbour and to build the Sky Harbour 37 Hangar across the country.

As site acquisitions accelerate, the now-integrated construction process is designed to increase speed and quality while reducing or controlling costs. However, management has revised projections upward: construction costs are now expected to be, on average, 10–12% higher than the estimates from December ’24 and March ’25 (see Main Concerns section).

The company is also moving out of the initial development phase across many campuses, which should allow it to capitalize on synergies. For example, in procurement, Sky Harbour can now source materials and equipment for the next 10 campuses at once, since specifications are standardized and well understood. This creates meaningful leverage in both pricing and efficiency.

III. Status of Leasing

Sky Habrour now operates 48 hangars across 7 sites.

The company provided an update on the unit economics of each campus:

Actual revenues:

• SGR: +44% since Dec ‘23 (it was the first site developed).

• BNA: +3% higher than Dec ‘23 (modest increase, broadly in line with inflation).

• OPF: +3% since Dec ’23. Importantly, initial leases were at $32/SF, while the latest are closer to $46/SF — a 44% uplift, suggesting further upside potential..

• SJC: +9% since Dec ’23.

• CMA: Underperforming at $31.33/SF versus an expected $40/SF.

Contracted revenue*

*Airports that have started now, but estimates are what’s in the lease (i.e., some don’t capture margin on fuel)

• APA I: In line with estimates at $40/SF.

• DVT and ADS: 25% below initial projections, though these are not tier-1 airports.

• IAD and BDL: Average revenue aligns with estimates; currently in pre-leasing, with upside potential as campuses begin operations.

• BFI: A disappointment so far, given its classification as tier-1. Revenue remains modest despite the prime location.

📌Conclusion: Overall, the business is progressing broadly in line with expectations on a revenue-per-square-foot basis.

• Mature airports are tracking inflation, confirming their inflation-protected nature.

• Others, such as OPF, still have room for rent increases in upcoming quarters.

• On average, new airports are performing as expected, though it’s too early for definitive conclusions.

A particularly important growth lever will be the second round of leasing. New tenants often negotiate favorable terms when Sky Harbour opens multiple new hangars and needs occupancy. At renewal, however, leverage shifts to Sky Harbour, as demand is high and supply limited.

The CEO also confirmed that Bradley and Dulles revenues are running above expectations, with introductory pricing designed to secure blue-chip anchor tenants.

Occupancy to watch:

• CMA and BNA: No change since Dec ’23 — still below ~90%.

• DVT and BFI: Expected to be fully leased within six months, which is a strong ramp-up pace.

Last, projected revenue now stands close to $150 million annually and will surpass $180 million after the expected acquisitions in the near-term.

IV. Financial Analysis

P&L and Cash Flow

• Revenues are up by +82% YoY, reaching $6.6m in the Q2. The increase mainly comes from Camarillo airport, acquired in December. Only $0.2m came from the three new campuses. The annualized revenue is much higher as these 3 campuses have a projected $14m annualized revenue (~$3.5m per quarter).

• Expenses rose significantly, reflecting the pre-operational costs of new campuses (which begin up to six months before revenue starts). Current negative accounting therefore overstates the weakness of the business.

• SG&A rose ~20% to an annualized ~$20m, higher than originally expected. Greater stabilization will be needed in the coming quarters to achieve operating leverage.

• Cash burn fell sharply, from $5m in Q1 to $1m in Q2.

• Management reiterated guidance to reach cash flow breakeven by year-end, as leasing ramps up in the three new campuses.

Balance Sheet

• Management is finalizing a 5-year, $200m bank facility at ~5.5%.

• This structure allows the company to draw funds as needed, rather than issuing a full bond upfront, which helps limit unnecessary interest expense.

• The facility is floating rate. While management avoids macro forecasting, the broader expectation is that U.S. rates may decline over the coming quarters.

💬I view the balance sheet as healthy and flexible, positioning the company well to fund the next wave of campuses.

V. Positive Conclusions

1. Closer to Break Even

• Reaching breakeven will be a major milestone, reinforcing the equity story.

• Early cash generation reduces financing needs over time, compounding like a snowball effect.

2. Quality of the Product and Service

• Facilities appear premium, modern, and well-designed — strengthening Sky Harbour’s competitive positioning.

3. Site Acquisitions on Track

• Four new sites acquired since December (two in Dec ’24, two in Q1 ’25).

• Acquisitions are accelerating, which is notable given that these processes often take years.

• This pace positions Sky Harbour ahead of competitors.

4. Financing Needs Addressed

• The planned $200m debt facility at ~5.5% provides funding for the next batch of sites, removing near-term financing risk.

5. Focus on Construction

• The creation of the dedicated construction division is a critical milestone.

• While costs have risen (see Main Concerns), vertical integration should deliver synergies over time.

• Management expects material savings once standardized designs enable bulk procurement and streamlined execution.

VI. Main Concerns and Risks

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The information provided in this blog is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial, investment, or professional advice. The v…

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The information provided in this blog is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial, investment, or professional advice. The valuations and analyses presented here are based on publicly available.

LVMH reported yesterday the results of the first half of the year 2025.

• Revenue is down by 3% (organic), reaching €39.8bn

• Operating profit is down by 15% to €9bn

• FCF stood at €4.0bn

• The company is investing in future growth and changing Creative Directors

• Positive performance in US and Europe, being Asia the weakest region

• An interim dividend of €5.5 was proposed

• Slight increase in the net debt, mainly due to €1bn of SBB during the semester

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Introduction

Dear readers,

The first half of the year has been painful for the majority of investors. Now the S&P 500 is back at all time highs.

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Disclaimer. Please read full disclaimer at the end of the page before reading the report. This publication is only for information and entertainment purposes. It doesn’t constitute financial advice.

The information provided in this blog is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial, investment, or professional advice. The v…

Read more

Disclaimer. Please read full disclaimer at the end of the page before reading the report. This publication is only for information and entertainment purposes. It doesn’t constitute financial advice.

The information provided in this blog is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial, investment, or professional advice. The v…

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Disclaimer. Please read full disclaimer at the end of the page before reading the report. This publication is only for information and entertainment purposes. It doesn’t constitute financial advice.

The information provided in this blog is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial, investment, or professional advice. The v…

Read more

Disclaimer. Please read full disclaimer at the end of the page before reading the report. This publication is only for information and entertainment purposes. It doesn’t constitute financial advice.

The information provided in this blog is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial, investment, or professional advice. The v…

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This email serves as an explanation of project The European Value.

This blog serves as a record of my thoughts, why I invest in certain companies, and what my expected returns are.

It is a learning process, where I document my insights in writing so that it can be helpful to other readers like you. It's free, and it will remain that way in t…

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The report is based on public information obtained from:

• McKinsey & Co (highly recommended to read all the reports)

• European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA)

• KPMG, Allianz, BCG, and others

Its not an investment recommendation.

I hope…

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