Yes, many people are commenting on that. I prefer just Porsche AG because its less complex and better company than VW (in my modest opinion).
Prospects for VW are not good, so I'm not considering right now. Too risky for me, and I'm already invested in several automotive companies.
Holdings tend to trade always with some degree of discount, but can offer special opportunities. I haven't considered, but if you have interesting info, please share so I can take a look at it. Thanks!
This is really great material, thanks for sharing!!
I'm publishing a new investment thesis, probably next week. After that, I'm going to review these numbers.. if they make sense, I will definitely write about it. Really well explained, but I need to analyze it.
I believe production is limited to their capabilities they have, but overall it has remained between 280-320k cars per year, fairly stable. They are significantly increasing the production of every model, but they are introducing new models (eg Macan, Taycan..) so in total terms, there are more Porsches, but looking individually, fairly stable.
There are special and limited editions that are limited, but are not a significant part of the revenue.
2. My estimate is a CAGR of +6.1% since 2019
3. It depends on the model and region. From what I've seen, from 6 months to more than 12 months. Lowest for entry cars such as Macan, higher for a 911. It also depends on the customization of a car.
BMW is a different company. I'm not an expert on the company, so difficult to say... Compared to Porsche, these are some of the highlights:
- Its a mass-production company, in the premium space. The competition there is higher (Audi, Mercedes, Volvo, Lexus, etc.)
- It sells more than 2.5 million cars per year (vs. 300k Porsche), therefore, the value of the brand is lower (although BMW has a strong brand in the premium segment)
- Lower EBIT margins: historically ranging between 8-9%, vs Porsche's €17-18%
- This translates into lower FCF margins: the company sells 2.5m cars and generated €6-7bn FCF in automotive segment vs. Porsche generating €4bn FCF with 300k cars delivered
- More exposure to China: 30% of deliveries in 1H 24. BMW will face strong competition in the country from Chinese OEMs, and probably in many other countries in the future.
Have you considered Porsche SE as well? It seems like it trades at a discount to Porsche AG and Volkswagen.
Yes, many people are commenting on that. I prefer just Porsche AG because its less complex and better company than VW (in my modest opinion).
Prospects for VW are not good, so I'm not considering right now. Too risky for me, and I'm already invested in several automotive companies.
Holdings tend to trade always with some degree of discount, but can offer special opportunities. I haven't considered, but if you have interesting info, please share so I can take a look at it. Thanks!
Here we go: https://valuexvail.com/porsche-se/
This is really great material, thanks for sharing!!
I'm publishing a new investment thesis, probably next week. After that, I'm going to review these numbers.. if they make sense, I will definitely write about it. Really well explained, but I need to analyze it.
Please share anything else you find on this topic
thanks!
Is BMW also a good deal?
1. Do They Limit Production?
2. CAGR of Vehicle Price Increases
3. How Easy Is It to Get a Porsche (Wait List)?
1. Analyzing production is difficult:
a) there are new product launches
b) every region has different trrend
I believe production is limited to their capabilities they have, but overall it has remained between 280-320k cars per year, fairly stable. They are significantly increasing the production of every model, but they are introducing new models (eg Macan, Taycan..) so in total terms, there are more Porsches, but looking individually, fairly stable.
There are special and limited editions that are limited, but are not a significant part of the revenue.
2. My estimate is a CAGR of +6.1% since 2019
3. It depends on the model and region. From what I've seen, from 6 months to more than 12 months. Lowest for entry cars such as Macan, higher for a 911. It also depends on the customization of a car.
BMW is a different company. I'm not an expert on the company, so difficult to say... Compared to Porsche, these are some of the highlights:
- Its a mass-production company, in the premium space. The competition there is higher (Audi, Mercedes, Volvo, Lexus, etc.)
- It sells more than 2.5 million cars per year (vs. 300k Porsche), therefore, the value of the brand is lower (although BMW has a strong brand in the premium segment)
- Lower EBIT margins: historically ranging between 8-9%, vs Porsche's €17-18%
- This translates into lower FCF margins: the company sells 2.5m cars and generated €6-7bn FCF in automotive segment vs. Porsche generating €4bn FCF with 300k cars delivered
- More exposure to China: 30% of deliveries in 1H 24. BMW will face strong competition in the country from Chinese OEMs, and probably in many other countries in the future.